Although the frequency of earthquakes impacting Santorini and nearby islands has decreased in recent days, the outlook for continued seismic activity in the coming weeks remains uncertain, according to Greece’s chief seismologist.
“We have to wait and see. Seismic sequences are unpredictable and can take time to settle,” Costas Papazachos told state broadcaster ERT on Monday.
He expressed cautious optimism, saying, “Hopefully, this sequence will surprise us in a positive way and resolve sooner rather than later.”
Following a series of undersea quakes this month – sometimes occurring every few minutes – a state of emergency has been declared on Santorini and the neighboring islands of Ios, Amorgos, and Anafi. Thousands of locals and workers have temporarily relocated to the Greek mainland.
Schools on the affected islands remain closed for a third week. In response, authorities have deployed rescue teams and backup power generators as precautionary measures. Additionally, the government announced the establishment of an emergency port facility on Santorini in case a mass evacuation becomes necessary.
Papazachos, a geophysics professor at the University of Thessaloniki, leads two emergency committees comprising scientists, government officials, military personnel, and emergency services.
He emphasized that while Santorini's dormant volcano poses no immediate threat, magmatic activity is influencing the tremors.
“The seismic activity is caused by the interaction of tectonic and magmatic processes,” he explained. “However, this doesn’t mean the magma will penetrate the 8-kilometer (5-mile) thick crust and trigger a volcanic eruption.”
Papazachos noted that researchers are gaining more insight using data from multiple monitoring systems.
“We’re not only analyzing seismograph readings but also monitoring ground deformation, gas emissions, and satellite data,” he said. “Right now, we can’t provide a definitive forecast because it’s too early to interpret the current decrease in seismic activity. We’ve seen unexpected developments before.”
On Monday, earthquakes reaching up to magnitude 5.1 were recorded in the undersea region surrounding the four islands under a state of emergency.
