The looming threat of EU-wide tariffs by former US President Donald Trump has sent shockwaves through European economies, including Greece. However, while Trump’s actions may seem drastic, they reflect a consistent strategy to protect American interests—one that starkly contrasts with the fragmented and sluggish response of European leaders, including those in Greece.

The Immediate Impact on Greece

At first glance, the direct impact of US tariffs on Greece might appear limited. Greek exports to the US in 2024 grew by almost 20%, reaching €2.4 billion, yet they account for only about 5% of total Greek exports (€50 billion annually). This equates to a mere 1% of the nation’s GDP, seemingly insulating Greece from a major direct blow.

But this superficial analysis masks the deeper risks. Over 55% of Greek exports target EU markets, which will bear the brunt of Trump’s tariffs. A slowdown in key European economies—already grappling with stagnant growth and internal inefficiencies—could ripple back to Greece, curbing tourism revenues (EU tourists contributed €11.7 billion out of a total €21.3 billion in travel receipts for 2024) and threatening the fragile recovery touted by the Greek government.

As the Governor of the Bank of Greece, Giannis Stournaras, admitted, Greece’s projected GDP growth of 2.5% this year hinges on the Eurozone’s modest 1.1% growth rate. A tariff-induced slowdown in Europe could significantly erode this forecast. Yet, the Greek leadership appears ill-prepared to shield the economy from such indirect effects.

Trump’s Tough but Transparent Strategy

Trump’s tariff policy, while blunt, serves clear American interests. During his previous term, Greece narrowly escaped broader tariffs on products like olive oil and olives—key exports that sustain thousands of Greek small and medium-sized enterprises. This time, the risk of “horizontal” tariffs looms large, potentially targeting Greek agricultural exports, including feta, yogurt, peaches, and olive oil.

Greek officials, however, seem content with lobbying rather than preparing for the worst-case scenario. Alkiviadis Kalabokis, President of the Association of Exporters, warned, “Efforts are being made through lobbying, but we may see horizontal tariffs imposed.” This lack of proactive contingency planning highlights the reactive, short-term mindset of the Greek government.

Trump, by contrast, operates with clear objectives: to redress trade imbalances. Greece’s trade surplus with the US—€200 million in 2024—might seem small, but it is emblematic of what Trump perceives as Europe’s one-sided trade practices. His focus on protecting American manufacturing and jobs, coupled with his willingness to renegotiate trade terms aggressively, shows a clarity of purpose sorely lacking in Greece’s leadership.

The Broader European Failure

Greek officials like Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Nikos Bakatselos, President of the Hellenic American Chamber of Commerce, have downplayed Trump’s tariffs, focusing instead on Europe’s internal challenges. While it is true that Germany and France face their own economic woes, this deflection ignores Greece’s precarious dependence on European stability.

Trump’s tariffs should serve as a wake-up call for Europe to abandon its bureaucratic inertia and embrace economic integration with flexibility. Instead, European leaders, including Greece’s, cling to outdated models, making them easy targets for Trump’s America-first policies.

What Greece Should Do

Rather than relying on vague optimism about US-Greece relations, the Greek government must act decisively:

Diversify Export Markets: Reduce reliance on the EU and US by aggressively targeting emerging markets in Asia, Africa, and Latin America.
Support SMEs: Provide subsidies and logistical support to small exporters who could be hit hardest by US tariffs.
Strengthen Domestic Manufacturing: Incentivize local production to reduce trade imbalances with major partners like the US.
Engage in Real Diplomacy: Instead of lobbying for exemptions, Greece should pursue bilateral agreements with the US to protect key industries.

American Investment: A Silver Lining

Despite Trump’s protectionist stance, US investment in Greece remains robust, particularly in technology and infrastructure. Companies like Pfizer, Microsoft, and Amazon Web Services are making substantial investments, showcasing the strategic appeal of Greece as a regional hub. However, this silver lining is not a testament to the Greek government’s competence but rather to global corporations capitalizing on Greece’s geographic advantages.

Conclusion

Trump’s tough stance on tariffs is not a surprise but a continuation of his America-first philosophy. The Greek government, instead of vilifying his policies, should take a hard look at its own shortcomings. Greece’s heavy reliance on the EU and lack of economic agility leave it exposed to external shocks. Trump’s tariffs, if imposed, will reveal just how unprepared Greece—and Europe—truly are.